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Prediction for CME (2024-02-10T07:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-02-10T07:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29112/-1
CME Note: Wide CME visible to the S/SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption seen south of AR 3576, centered around S30E05, which appears to deflect south. This eruption is best seen as dimming starting around 2024-02-10T06:96Z in SDO AIA 193. Following this eruption, post-eruptive arcades/rising loops are seen near AR 3576. This eruption is partially obscured by an eclipse in SDO AIA imagery from 2024-02-10T06:55Z-07:22Z. Opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171 and post-eruptive loops are best seen in SDO AIA 94. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195/304. | Arrival note: Minor increase in B_total, solar wind speed, and temperature. A gradual increase in density follows the start of the arrival and is drawn out over the course of 24 hours. This arrival may be associated with the combined influences of the CMEs with IDs 2024-02-09T00:12:00-CME-001, 2024-02-10T07:00:00-CME-001, and 2024-02-10T23:36:00-CME-001.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-13T01:38Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-12T17:16Z (-3.0h, +4.88h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/02/10 06:55Z
Plane of Sky 1: 13:40Z; 31.5Rsun; S Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 19:00Z; 31.5Rsun; N Direction
POS Difference: 5:20
POS Midpoint: 16:20Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 9:25

Numeric View/Impact Type: 2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.2
Travel Time: ~6.2 * 9:25 = 58:21

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-02-12T17:16Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time: 5%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5

Lead Time: 56.67 hour(s)
Difference: 8.37 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-02-10T16:58Z

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